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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
743.50
-43.00
713.00
-5.00
Jul 7
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	743.50	-43.00	713.00	-5.00	Jul 7

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
471.89	+1.71	564.13	-0.86	795.89	+1.69	Jul 10

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	445	454	-9	521	510	+11	718	766	-48	Jul 10
Singapore	430	464	-34	535	555	-20	687	799	-112	Jul 10
Fujairah	413	498	-85	523	559	-36	737	952	-215	Jul 10
Houston	437	478	-41	500	598	-98	703	753	-50	Jul 10

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Latest News
- 2025-07-11
  Oil prices recover slightly but US tariffs, OPEC downgrade weigh
  Oil prices steadied in early trading on Friday following a 2% drop in the previous session that was driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, expected to hurt economic growth, and a cut to OPEC demand forecasts. Brent crude futures rose 19... Read more Oil prices steadied in early trading on Friday following a 2% drop in the previous session that was driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs, expected to hurt economic growth, and a cut to OPEC demand forecasts.
  Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.28%, to $68.83 a barrel as of 0037 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ticked up 26 cents to $66.83 a barrel, up 0.39%.
  The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in its 2025 World Oil Outlook published on Thursday, cut its forecasts for global oil demand in 2026 to 2029 because of slowing Chinese demand.
  Global demand will average 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, OPEC said, down from 108 million bpd expected in last year’s forecast.
  U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday announced a 35% tariff rate for goods imported from Canada, starting August 1, and said the United States planned to impose blanket tariffs of 15% or 20% on most other trade partners.
  
  Earlier in the day, President Trump threatened punitive tariffs on Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy, and laid out plans for duties on copper, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
  The European Union is expected to propose a floating Russian oil price cap in a new sanctions package this week, after a fall in oil prices made the current cap irrelevant, according to EU diplomat sources on Thursday. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-07-11
  Oil at the Center as U.S. and Brazil Edge Toward a Trade War
  Brazil is preparing to defend its oil export sector as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1. The move has escalated tensions between the two countries, with Brazilian President Luiz... Read more Brazil is preparing to defend its oil export sector as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1. The move has escalated tensions between the two countries, with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowing reciprocal action: “If he charges us 50%, we’ll charge him 50%,” Lula told local media outlet Record.
  
  Oil is Brazil’s top export to the United States, and until now it had been exempt from a 10% tariff already imposed on other Brazilian goods. In 2024, Brazil exported a record 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd), of which 243,000 bpd were shipped to the U.S., according to government data compiled by consultancy StoneX. The prospect of a steep tariff on crude has raised concerns about short-term disruption but not long-term damage.
  
  “These tariffs may generate short-term noise in trade flows and impact margins on spot contracts, but do not represent a structural risk,” BTG Pactual analysts Luiz Carvalho and Gustavo Cunha said in a client note. They expect Petrobras—Brazil’s largest oil producer—to remain largely unaffected, noting that only 4% of its oil exports went to the U.S. in Q1 2024.
  
  While the U.S. market accounts for roughly 37% of Petrobras’ refined product exports, analysts believe these flows can be redirected with minimal impact. “In absolute terms, it’s a small volume, and Petrobras should be able to find alternative buyers,” BTG added.
  
  Still, the Brazilian Petroleum Institute (IBP), which represents oil majors like Petrobras, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor, has expressed concern and urged the government to pursue a diplomatic resolution. The Institute is awaiting clarification on whether oil will remain exempt under Trump’s revised tariffs.
  
  Lula has convened a ministerial group to study Brazil’s response, warning that the country may also appeal to the World Trade Organization. He cited Brazil’s new Reciprocity Law as a legislative tool to counter tariff hikes from foreign governments.
  
  As U.S. tariffs are delayed until August 1, Brazil is attempting to safeguard a sector that has become increasingly important for its economy. With export volumes rising and diversification underway, Brazil may weather the immediate fallout—but a prolonged trade war could test even its flexible energy strategy. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  Shale Gas Could Make Argentina Major LNG Exporter
  Huge shale gas reserves are laying the foundations of pipeline and LNG exports out of Argentina, which could make South America’s second-largest economy a major force in regional and global gas supply. Argentina has the resource base—the vast unconventional... Read more Huge shale gas reserves are laying the foundations of pipeline and LNG exports out of Argentina, which could make South America’s second-largest economy a major force in regional and global gas supply.
  
  Argentina has the resource base—the vast unconventional reserves in the Vaca Muerta shale basin in the Neuquen province. But it needs to build up infrastructure to ship the gas from supply centers to interstate regional pipelines and planned LNG export facilities. Argentina also needs to continue with the market reforms launched by business-friendly president Javier Milei to attract foreign investment and reverse decades of investors shunning the country due to economic and fiscal instability.
  
  On its quest to become an LNG exporter, the country will also face stiff competition from the world’s biggest LNG exporters who have low cost of supply.
  
  Argentina could see its natural gas production peak at 180 million cubic feet per day (Mmcd) by 2040 under a base-case scenario, with the potential to reach as high as 270 Mmcd if the country successfully develops all its planned LNG export projects, Wood Mackenzie said in its latest outlook on the country’s gas and power markets.
  
  Key to the jump in gas supply will be the unconventional fields in Vaca Muerta.'
  
  Related: Big Oil Braces for Oil Price Hit
  
  “With Bolivian exports set to cease by the end of this decade, Argentina is strategically positioned to become the leading regional supplier,” said Javier Toro, Senior Research Manager at Wood Mackenzie.
  
  “At the same time, Argentina has a real opportunity to establish itself as a credible LNG exporter on the world stage.”
  
  Vaca Muerta Shale Output Soars
  
  Oil and gas production in Vaca Muerta has jumped in recent months and the country is now looking at the next step of the resource boom—exporting its huge hydrocarbon resources.
  
  Vaca Muerta—Spanish for ‘dead cow’—has been dubbed the Argentinian Permian, although its geologic properties have been compared more appropriately to the Eagle Ford.
  
  The shale play is estimated to hold recoverable resources consisting of 16 billion barrels of oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Those numbers make the Vaca Muerta the world’s second-largest shale gas deposit and the fourth-biggest shale oil resource.
  
  In the first quarter of 2025, Vaca Muerta built on last year’s strong production performance, with oil output surging 26% and gas production rising 16% year-on-year, Rystad Energy has estimated.
  
  Gas Export Opportunities
  
  Argentina is already interconnected via pipelines with Chile, Uruguay, and Bolivia. The northern pipeline flows have been recently reversed, allowing Argentina to deliver gas to Brazil through existing Bolivian infrastructure. Argentina could also boost pipeline gas exports by extending a connection from Uruguaiana to Porto Alegre and into Brazil’s integrated transport system, Wood Mackenzie reckons.
  
  Argentina has several LNG export projects in the works. Domestic energy company YPF has signed agreements with international majors Shell and Eni to enter the project development of the Argentina LNG project, which includes gas production from Vaca Muerta gas blocks and its transportation through pipelines. These pipelines will extend 580 kilometers (360 miles) to a processing and liquefaction terminal to be built in Sierra Grande, Rio Negro, on the Atlantic coast.
  
  Argentina has already taken final investment decision (FID) on a floating liquefaction facility with a capacity of up to 2.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa). It is also evaluating an additional 3.5 Mtpa unit under the Southern Energy consortium consisting of Pan American Energy, Pampa, Harbour Energy, YPF, and Golar.
  
  If all planned LNG projects proceed, Argentina could be exporting up to 28 Mtpa of LNG by 2035, according to Wood Mackenzie.
  
  Infrastructure and Cost Challenges
  
  Despite the huge resources and initial commitments from foreign majors, Argentina’s LNG export future is not guaranteed. The country needs billions of U.S. dollars of investment in midstream infrastructure to carry the gas from the Vaca Muerta fields to export facilities.
  
  “For LNG development, Argentina needs dedicated pipelines to liquefaction facilities and scaled upstream production capacity,” WoodMac says.
  
  Interest in Argentina’s top shale play has increased since Milei took office a year and a half ago.
  
  But the new government has also announced an end to state financing for pipelines and other infrastructure projects. So companies have to rely on private investment and tax breaks and other incentives in the new free-market approach to the economy.
  
  Argentina could be a major gas exporter if it maintains the reforms momentum.
  
  Milei’s government has enacted new legislation, the so-called Large Investment Incentive Regime – or RIGI, by its Spanish initials – offering tax breaks and other incentives for major investors in the South American country.
  
  Argentina’s market deregulation efforts are expected to raise the energy investments in the country by about $2.5 billion to $15 billion in 2025, officials have said.
  
  As a result, international companies are not shunning Argentina anymore and are exploring mergers and acquisitions (M&A) opportunities, including in the energy sector.
  
  Still, the cost of supply and ability to compete on the global LNG market with prices would also be crucial to Argentina’s gas export potential.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  MABUX: Global bunker indices poised for downward correction on Jul.11.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— moved sideways on July 10: 380 HSFO - USD/MT - 471.89 (+1.71) VLSFO - USD/MT – 564.13 (-0.86) MGO - USD/MT – 795.89 (+1.69) As of Jul.10, the... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index—a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO— moved sideways on July 10:
  
  380 HSFO - USD/MT - 471.89 (+1.71)
  VLSFO - USD/MT – 564.13 (-0.86)
  MGO - USD/MT – 795.89 (+1.69)
  
  As of Jul.10, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI), which monitors the correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)— registered the following pricing dynamics across the four major ports: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • HSFO segment: All four ports were undercharged. The discount narrowed by $2 in Rotterdam and Houston, widened by $2 in Fujairah, and stayed unchanged in Singapore. Rotterdam’s MDI approached a full 100-percent correlation between MBP and DBP.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Rotterdam continued to be the only overpriced port, with the premium increasing by $1. Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston remained undercharged. The discount widened by $4 in Singapore, while staying unchanged in Fujairah and Houston. Houston’s MDI remained close to the $100 threshold.
  
  • MGO LS segment: All four ports persisted in the undercharge zone. Margins widened by $1 in Rotterdam, $8 in Singapore, and $10 in Fujairah, but narrowed by $11 in Houston. The MDI values in Singapore and Fujairah remained above the $100 mark.
  
  We expect Global bunker indices to shift into a downward correction on Jul.11: 380 HSFO – minus 3-7 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 3-8 USD/MT, MGO LS – minus 3-7 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-07-11
  Competition and Policy Woes Impact UK Biodiesel Sector
  One of Britain’s biggest biodiesel plants is preparing to shut down in the latest blow to the government’s industrial strategy. The Greenergy plant in Lincolnshire, which is thought to produce as much as a quarter of the UK’s biodiesel, on Thursday... Read more One of Britain’s biggest biodiesel plants is preparing to shut down in the latest blow to the government’s industrial strategy.
  
  The Greenergy plant in Lincolnshire, which is thought to produce as much as a quarter of the UK’s biodiesel, on Thursday confirmed it would begin consultation on a proposal to cease production.
  
  Greenergy said its Immingham plant had continued to be impacted by market factors, including slower increases in the UKs biofuels blending mandates compared to European countries and competition from subsidised US-origin products.
  
  Greenergy CEO Adam Trager said: “It has been an incredibly difficult decision to enter consultation on the proposed closure of our Immingham site, and a decision we have not taken lightly.
  
  “However, in light of continuing market pressures, we unfortunately do not have enough certainty on the outlook for UK biofuels policy to make the substantial investments required to create a competitive operation at Immingham.
  
  “We are seeking urgent talks with ministers about increasing the amount of biofuels used in the UKs petrol and diesel.”
  
  The closure follows a temporary shutdown of the facility in May ahead of a review of its viability.
  
  Industrial strategy blow
  
  Greenergy’s move is the latest in a string of industrial closures in recent months, including nearby British Steel in Scunthorpe, the Lindsey oil refinery and ABF’s bioethanol plant in Yorkshire.
  
  The government stepped into rescue operations at British Steel in a move that will cost the taxpayer hundreds of millions of pounds, but has so far avoided intervening in other shutdowns.
  
  Last month, the government published its industrial strategy, in which it vowed to “create an enduring partnership between business and a stronger, more capable, and more agile state, with far deeper penetration of business expertise and understanding of companies’ needs,” as well as tackle high industrial electricity costs for manufacturers.
  
  The UK’s biodiesel producers have come under intense strain following a surge in US imports after the UK removed tariffs on US hydrotreated vegetable oil, a form of biodiesel, in November 2022.
  
  In June, Keir Starmer agreed a 1.4bn-litre tariff-free import quota for US ethanol as part of a trade deal with President Donald Trump.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  EU Floats Dynamic Price Cap on Russian Oil Under Market Pressure
  The European Commission has proposed a major overhaul to its Russian oil price cap regime, introducing a floating benchmark tied to global crude prices in an effort to regain control over a sanctions tool that has lost impact as oil markets decline, Reuters... Read more The European Commission has proposed a major overhaul to its Russian oil price cap regime, introducing a floating benchmark tied to global crude prices in an effort to regain control over a sanctions tool that has lost impact as oil markets decline, Reuters reported on Thursday.
  
  Under the new draft plan, disclosed Thursday, the existing $60-per-barrel cap on Russian seaborne crude would be replaced by a flexible mechanism that tracks international prices, likely pegged to Brent, while staying below market rates to maintain pressure on Kremlin revenues. The move marks a sharp departure from the static ceiling implemented by the EU and G7 in December 2022.
  
  The proposal comes amid growing frustration in Brussels over the cap’s fading relevance. With Urals crude currently trading near or below $60, Russia has continued to ship volumes largely unaffected, bypassing enforcement through opaque shipping networks and non-aligned buyers in Asia. A floating cap could reintroduce sanctions pressure if properly enforced through EU-controlled shipping insurance and vessel tracking.
  
  “The fixed cap has been overtaken by market conditions,” one EU diplomat told Reuters exclusively. “We need a tool that adapts to price shifts and keeps revenues constrained.”
  
  The proposed floating system would adjust regularly based on market benchmarks, similar in principle to dynamic tariffs. Final parameters, including discount width and reset frequency, are still under negotiation.
  
  The plan forms part of the EU’s 18th sanctions package, expected to be debated later this month. It would require unanimous approval from all 27 member states.
  
  Energy analysts say the move could complicate Russian export planning and insurance access, though many of the country’s crude flows already circumvent G7-aligned enforcement. Moscow has not formally responded but previously dismissed the price cap mechanism as ineffective.
  
  The change underscores a growing divergence within the G7. While the U.S. and Japan have resisted lowering the cap, the EU is now acting unilaterally to restore sanctions leverage as global oil prices slide and fiscal discipline in Moscow comes under strain. However, the proposal faces familiar headwinds. Several EU member states, including Slovakia and Hungary, have previously resisted tightening sanctions on Russian energy. The price cap overhaul will require unanimous approval to enter into force, and early diplomatic signals suggest consensus may again be difficult to reach.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  Trump Tariff Comments Trigger Oil Price Decline
  Crude futures fell over 2% Thursday as traders reacted to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, raising alarms over future oil demand in key growth markets. At 12:19 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.80%, at $68.93 per barrel, while... Read more Crude futures fell over 2% Thursday as traders reacted to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, raising alarms over future oil demand in key growth markets. At 12:19 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.80%, at $68.93 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $66.97, shedding 2.06% on the day.
  
  In comments made Wednesday evening, Trump warned of a broadening tariff regime targeting Chinese imports, citing ongoing imbalances and Beijing’s trade practices. While no specific measures were announced, the tone of escalation rattled energy markets already facing macroeconomic headwinds.
  
  The tariff remarks come amid signs of cooling demand in Asia’s industrial and transportation sectors. Chinese refinery throughput has slowed for the second consecutive month, and recent export data showed continued weakness across regional manufacturing hubs.
  
  Futures traders responded with a broad selloff in crude and refined products. Gasoline prices also dropped, while diesel cracks in Asia edged lower.
  
  No immediate response has been issued by China’s Ministry of Commerce, but analysts say any retaliatory action could directly impact crude flow dynamics between the two largest energy consumers.
  
  Trump has also dispatched letters warning seven additional countries–Algeria, Brunei, Iraq, Libya, Moldova, the Philippines and Sri Lanka–that they could face tariffs ranging from 20% to 30% starting August 1, citing “common sense” and trade imbalance concerns. The letters signal a broader move to reassert U.S. leverage in trade negotiations, though Trump notably excluded major economic partners like Japan, South Korea and the EU, for now.
  
  Meanwhile, Iraq has publicly downplayed the impact of the impending U.S. tariffs. The country’s Trade Ministry emphasized that crude oil–exempt from the new duties–represents its main export to the U.S., totaling around 200,000 barrels per day or roughly $4.5?billion annually. However, Iraqi officials view this moment as an opportunity to streamline and redirect non-oil trade flows, reducing reliance on third-party brokers and seeking more transparent, direct engagement with U.S. markets.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  Europe Braces for Rising Gas Demand after Price Volatility Hits 2021 Low
  So far in July, European natural gas markets have seen the lowest volatility in prices since 2021, but as summer temperatures peak in the coming weeks, demand is expected to rise, and so will the benchmark gas prices. In recent days, the historic 10-day... Read more So far in July, European natural gas markets have seen the lowest volatility in prices since 2021, but as summer temperatures peak in the coming weeks, demand is expected to rise, and so will the benchmark gas prices.
  
  In recent days, the historic 10-day volatility in European gas prices slumped to the lowest levels since September 2021, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.
  
  The low volatility followed a turbulent month of June, in which prices spiked due to concerns about disruptions to supply from the Middle East during the Israel-Iran conflict.
  
  The markets have calmed since the ceasefire from late June.
  
  But now Europe and north Asia enter the peak summer demand season, with temperatures in Europe expected to be higher than normal. Heat waves in Asia have also increased LNG buying there, pushing up European prices, too.
  
  In addition, BloombergNEF models suggest that wind power generation in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is set to decline due to low wind speeds. This is expected to boost demand for electricity generated by gas-fired power plants and coal plants in July.
  
  Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, rose by 1.7% at $40.87 (34.90 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) as of 11:55 a.m. in Amsterdam on Thursday, as summer cooling demand grows.
  
  European gas traders and utilities will also have to buy a lot more LNG this summer to fill storage sites ahead of the winter.
  
  At the end of the past winter heating season in March, Europe had its natural gas storage sites depleted to levels last seen three years ago as a cold winter and low renewable energy output, with low wind speeds and little sunshine, forced countries to use more gas than in the past three winters.
  
  Some relief could come from the eased rules and targets for natural gas storage refills in the EU, endorsed by the European Parliament this week in a move aimed at preventing price spikes.
  
  The greater flexibility comes in response to the fears of several large gas-consuming nations in Europe that they would have to either subsidize storage filling when it’s uneconomical or miss the targets.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  OPEC: The World Will Need an Extra 19.5 Million Bpd Refining Capacity by 2050
  The world will need as much as 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of new refining capacity by 2050 to meet rising global oil demand, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) with forecasts through the middle of the century. Overall, OPEC expects... Read more The world will need as much as 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of new refining capacity by 2050 to meet rising global oil demand, OPEC said in its 2025 World Oil Outlook (WOO) with forecasts through the middle of the century.
  
  Overall, OPEC expects global oil demand to continue rising by 2050, with global oil demand projected to increase by more than 19 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, reaching nearly 123 million bpd.
  
  India, Other Asia, the Middle East, and Africa are set to be the primary sources of long-term oil demand growth. Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million bpd between 2024 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.2 million bpd and being the single largest demand driver. Chinese demand growth is set to slow materially, while developed economies will see a decline in oil consumption by 2050.
  
  However, emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as recent policy shifts and an improved economic outlook, will drive robust growth in the medium and long term, according to OPEC.
  
  “There is no peak oil demand on the horizon,” the cartel’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the WOO published on Thursday.
  
  As oil demand is set to grow, refining additions will be needed to meet said demand.
  
  OPEC’s medium-term outlook sees around 5.8 million bpd of new refining capacity coming online by 2030, led by Asia-Pacific (3.2 million bpd), Africa (1.2 million bpd), and the Middle East (1 million bpd). These regions will account for more than 90% of the global refining capacity additions out to 2030.
  
  The global annual average rate of capacity additions for the period from 2024–2030 is estimated at just below 1 million bpd, OPEC said.
  
  Refining capacity is set to increase by another 7.3 million bpd between 2030 and 2035, due to growing demand in most developing regions.
  
  Around 3 million bpd is set to be added between 2035 and 2040, and only 1.2 million bpd in the 2045-2050 period, according to OPEC’s forecasts.
  
  Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-07-11
  IEA Head: The World Must Prepare to Address Energy Security Threats
  Governments and policy makers must better anticipate and prepare for energy crises before they happen, drawing from past experience and increasing diversification of supply, predictability in policy, and international cooperation, Fatih Birol, Executive... Read more Governments and policy makers must better anticipate and prepare for energy crises before they happen, drawing from past experience and increasing diversification of supply, predictability in policy, and international cooperation, Fatih Birol, Executive Director at the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Thursday.
  
  Many tools to tackle energy security today have been developed after crises have hit in the past. Such was the case with the creation of the IEA itself following the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s and with the emergency stockpiles of oil to fend off similar crises.
  
  “Many of the tools we have come to rely on today originally came from actions taken to strengthen energy security after a crisis has hit,” Birol wrote in an article on LinkedIn.
  
  “And in this lies an important lesson – we must better anticipate and prepare for energy crises before they happen, particularly in fast-evolving areas like critical minerals and technology supply chains, electricity and digital security, and climate resilience.”
  
  The IEA praised policies for emergency oil and gas stockpiles in recent years. But the agency has now turned its focus on greater diversification in critical minerals and rare earths supply, as a handful of countries – led by China – have an oversized market share in the supply of materials critical to the global economy, manufacturing, and clean energy advancements.
  
  The heavily concentrated supply of critical minerals in a handful of countries and China’s export controls are raising the risk of “painful disruptions” in the market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned in May in its annual report, Global Critical Minerals Outlook.
  
  Despite major deals and government support in the West for building domestic supply chains, China has raised its market share over the past few years, the IEA’s report found.
  
  The average market share of the top three refining nations of key energy minerals rose from around 82% in 2020 to 86% in 2024 as some 90% of supply growth came from the top single supplier alone: Indonesia for nickel and China for cobalt, graphite, and rare earths, the IEA said. Source: Oilprice.com

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